Armageddon averted – at 3.30pm tomorrow
The time to get back into the equity market is on Tuesday at 3.30pm BST, according to stock market veteran Robin Griffiths.
Taking his cue from charts of share price movements, he told Financial News’ sister publication Wealth Bulletin in the summer: “The main indices will go lower, probably by between 25% and 30%. This move will become frantic and possibly contain some panic in September and October, which will set up a great buying opportunity.”
He said investors should be ready to reinvest in mid-October: “The time to spend that money you can put in the diary: Tuesday October 14 at 3.30pm – after a good lunch.”
Griffiths, a portfolio manager at Cazenove Capital Management, reconfirmed his forecast last Friday. He said: “I’ll stay with that call, although we might not quite get the price spike until the end of October. I expect the rally to continue for three weeks, after which we should get another dip to near recent lows on no volume and no panic. From that point, I would anticipate a 20% gain by March.”
The FTSE 100 fell 8.85% to 3932 on Friday. Griffiths said: “There is massive support for the index at its March 2003 low of 3478. The Vix measure of volatility at 60 is way beyond the level of 45 which would normally indicate a rebound. The UK Government is doing all the right things.”
Griffiths is unwilling to forecast price movements beyond March. “A great deal depends on the economic environment,” he said. But he added it was crucial for investors to position themselves for big gains. He said: “If you didn’t get into the market at the end of 1974, you would miss out on 60% of the later gains, and the same thing could happen again.”
UK equity managers Neil Woodford and Anthony Bolton of Fidelity International previously said shares were close to hitting their low.
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